Hypothesis Testing in Palaeoanthropology

Jana A Makedonska, University at Albany, Albany, New York, USA
David S Strait, University at Albany, Albany, New York, USA

Published online: July 2015

DOI: 10.1002/9780470015902.a0026160

Abstract

Hypothesis testing is used to guide scientific research by narrowing down possible explanations for a phenomenon, using the principle of elimination of alternative scenarios. Thus, scientists test hypotheses by attempting to falsify them. A hypothesis is deduced from observed patterns and aims at linking those patterns to the factors proposed to have caused it. Hypothesis testing is frequently accompanied by statistical tests of null hypotheses, focusing on the inferential analysis of sample properties such as the mean and the variance. For instance, if there is less than a 5% chance that two samples are drawn from the same entity, we reject the null hypothesis and claim that these samples are significantly different. A salient point to keep in mind when testing hypotheses is that a successful evaluation of a hypothesis depends critically on the manner in which it was formulated. Hypotheses pertaining to the origin of modern humans are reviewed and evaluated.

Key Concepts

  • A hypothesis links observed patterns to the factors proposed to have caused it.
  • Scientists do not attempt to prove that a hypothesis is true.
  • Hypothesis testing guides scientific research by narrowing down possible explanations for a phenomenon, using the principle of elimination of alternative scenarios.
  • Statistical tests assess the probability that a hypothesis is true or false.
  • It is important for hypotheses to specify testable predictions.
  • Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain the origin of modern humans.
  • Hypotheses explaining modern human origins each make several predictions, some of which can be readily tested using paleontological and genetic data.

Keywords: hypothesis; deductive thinking; statistical significance; origin of modern humans; replacement; multiregional

Figure 1. Diagrams illustrating several of the major hypotheses for the origin of modern humans. A) Strict Replacement hypothesis; B) Replacement with Hybridization hypothesis; C) Assimilation hypothesis; D) Diffusion Wave hypothesis; E) Recurrent African Expansion hypothesis; F) Multiregional Evolution hypothesis. The Diffusion wave hypothesis is depicted in a way similar to the Assimilation model. However, in the former case, the arrows would represent gene flow between adjacent populations, while in latter case, the arrows would represent gene exchange between migrants and indigenous populations. Black color in the big arrows indicates anatomically modern H. sapiens. Modelled from Aiello (). Reproduced with permission from Joanna Cameron.
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Further Reading

Ellison AM, Gotelli NJ, Inouye BD, et al. (2014) P values, hypothesis testing, and model selection: it's déjà vu all over again. Ecology 95 (3): 609–610.

Sedgwick P (2014a) Pitfalls of statistical hypothesis testing: multiple testing. BMJ 349: g5310.

Sedgwick P (2014b) Understanding statistical hypothesis testing. BMJ 348: g3557.

Sedgwick P (2014c) Pitfalls of statistical hypothesis testing: type I and type II errors. BMJ 349: g4287.

Related Sub-Topics:

Evolution: Theories and Ideas | Human Evolution | Population Structure and Genetics
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Article Title: Hypothesis Testing in Palaeoanthropology
 
How to Cite close
Makedonska, Jana A, and Strait, David S(Jul 2015) Hypothesis Testing in Palaeoanthropology. In: eLS. John Wiley & Sons Ltd, Chichester. http://www.els.net [doi: 10.1002/9780470015902.a0026160]